These aren't exactly the kind of numbers that make a sitting Guv think he's safe in an upcoming election.
Incumbent Republican Governor Mitch Daniels leads Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson by 5 points, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Today, it's Daniels and Lt. Governor Becky Skillman 50%, Long Thompson and running mate Dennie Oxley 45%. Among men, Daniels leads by 8 points; among women, Daniels leads by 3. 15% of Republicans cross over to vote for the Democratic ticket; 22% of Democrats cross over to vote for the Republican ticket. Independents favor Daniels by 3 points. Daniels, elected in 2004, is running for his second term as governor.
It looks like a well-stratified poll, and I tend to believe it, but, one question:
How can Daniels be ahead by 30 pts. in Indianapolis? That seems suspect. I'd bet, if it's true, it's incredibly soft for him inside 465, and given the steamroller Obama is likely to put through Marion County, if I were Daniels, I'd be scared of these numbers.
It's also good news for those House Dems who took a chance on endorsing Obama in southern Indiana.
I am very suspect of any poll that claims 22% of Democrats would cross over and vote for Mitch Daniels.
SUSA also had a Pres poll out yesterday. Obama is up by 1, but, as DailyKos pointed out, the sample of African American voters was small and gave John McCain 14% of that vote. I just don't see that happening.
I also don't see Mitch winning southern Indiana. Jill hasn't done much in the way of campaigning down here, but when she does those numbers will change fast.
The essential problem for JLT here is that only 5 percent call themselves undecided.
Here's the number that made me wonder:
Support Among Lean Obama Voters
Daniels/Skillman - 51 percent
Long Thompson/Oxley - 45 percent
What the $%@#?
I think that may come from people, specifically in southern Indiana, who are not at all familiar with JLT.
I have no doubt that will change.
I hope you're right.
My biggest fear is that Daniels will somehow be able to pull off this transformation from Arrogant, Out-Of-Touch Guy into Change Candidate.
JLT might want to start campaigning down in the southern part of the state. I think she'll take northern Indiana and benefit from the turnout for Obama in Indy. Southern Indiana will be the key to the election.
She doesn't seem to have a lot of supporters down south, but there are plenty of people down here who do not like Mitch.
Her campaign's absence down here is noticeable...maybe they're still trying to figure out how to fit Long-Thompson / Oxley on a yard sign.
Well, I'll tell you something both comforting and true.
We all joke around down here about all the votes Mitch got last time, yet now we cant seem to find anyone who voted for him. Even local republicans (who I can assure you must be die-hards in my Democratic county) don't seem to claim him anymore.
I promise you once JLT does some walking around and talking to folks down here, you can dust off your "burn't toast" graphic.
You can't burn the good ol boys and expect to fool them with southern accents and flannel shirts.
Jen,
Why do the Lean Obama numbers make you wonder? Aren't Hoosiers notorious for splitting their votes between R's and D's? Or am I just behind the times?