New SurveyUSA results released yesterday don't bode well for Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson, but there are still plenty of unknowns in the race.
One big one? Whether Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama will choose Indiana's own Evan Bayh for his running mate. That could change the entire political landscape here in the Hoosier state and give a much-needed boost to Thompson's campaign.
Here's the blurb describing the latest SUSA numbers:
In an election for Governor of Indiana held today, 08/19/08, Incumbent Republican Mitch Daniels defeats Democratic Jill Long Thompson, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. Today, it's Daniels and running mate Lt. Governor Becky Skillman 52%, Democrat Long Thompson and running mate Dennie Oxley 38%. Libertarian and Independent candidates each take 3% of the vote; 4% of likely voters are undecided. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released eight weeks ago, when third-party challengers were not named, Daniels is up 2 points; Long Thompson is down 7. Long-Thompson continues to lead in Northern Indiana. Daniels continues to lead in other regions of the state. 23% of Democrats cross over to vote for incumbent Republican Daniels; 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Long Thompson. Independents favor Daniels by 7 points. Among men, Daniels had led by 8, now leads by 23. Among women, Daniels had led by 3, now leads by 6. Among voters age 18 to 49, Daniels' lead has doubled, from 7 points to 15 points. Among voters age 50+, Daniels had led by 5, now leads by 13.
Jen,
I think SUSA blew this one. Their sample sizes have changed form the last poll. The last poll had party affiliation weighted equally. This time they have republicans at 42%.
They've also under-sampled the African American vote. There's no way AA numbers won't be up with all the increased registration and Obama on the ticket.
I normally like SUSA, but they don't have a good track record for Indiana this year. They completely blew the primary (as did a lot of other polling firms).
I think we're probably closer to the former poll results, with Thompson still down but within striking distance.
I actually have to disagree with you on SUSA. They've been spot-on this year -- and in years past.
I hate push-button polling as much as the next person, but these results jibe with the results Daniels' campaign is releasing and other polling that's being talked about in hushed whispers.
If I were in a charitable mood, my guess is she's down by 10-12 points.
Her big problem is that if Evan Bayh gets picked, that race is going to completely overshadow the gubernatorial race here, and she won't have the money to break through the media clutter without a lot of national help.
I'm not saying Daniels isn't vulnerable. He is. But the Thompson campaign wasted a lot of time while Daniels was rebuilding his image. That early investment by Daniels will pay off if Hoosier voters once again get distracted by the presidential limelight.
Oh just thought you might want to check this link:http://www.jconline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080820/ELECTION01/808200336/-1/ELECTION&referrer=NEWSFRONTCAROUSEL It points out that one of the two indepent candidates for guv on the survey was disqualified from the November Ballot. Also we have no idea what JLT will throw at Mitch. And you might be interested to know that JLT is now on average recieving bigger donations than mitch. I wonder why? So I would not get gloomy about the race. If you will remeber at this point in '96 everyone said Frank had not chance of beating Goldsmith. So be confident and win this race!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Jen,
SUSA has been good this year, but not in Indiana (for whatever reason).
They had Clinton winning Indiana by 12 points 2 days before the election. They were one of the most inaccurate polls, with Public Policy the closest. Actually, PPP has been pretty good in their red-state polls this year.
While I have no doubt Jill and Obama are down, I doubt Indiana has changed as much as what SUSA suggests it has. My own opinion, Obama down but within the MoE, Jill down by 8 with Mitch under 50%.
I've paid more attention to their gubernatorial polling, which seems pretty dead-on.
Daniels' number is more important than Thompson's, and it's encouraging that he's still hovering around 50 percent, but I just don't see any substantive movement out of Thompson's campaign to indicate that they know how to beat this guy.